The Horse Race as SAT.

Iraq: Bush
The Election: Senator Clinton

Both believe there's light at the end of the tunnel; neither sees the train.

...Or as Christopher Beam puts it:

The Clinton campaign is starting to remind us of that immortal scene from Dumb and Dumber, in which Lloyd, played by Jim Carrey, asks his crush what the chances are that she’d marry him. She gives him blunt odds: one in 1 million. After a moment of thinking, Lloyd’s face lights up: “So, you’re telling me there’s a chance.”