Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Right-wingers don't believe polls unless they validate their worldview.

It's true. Remember this classic take from Hugh Hewitt, before the 2006 midterms?
I get a lot of e-mail asking me why I point to polls like the one favoring Steele when I discount some polls favoring some Democrats.

Because this question comes mostly from lefties, I will pause to explain in as uncomplicated a fashion as possible.

Polling methodology and models favors Democrats.

So polls that show Republicans tied or ahead I see as indicating a race in which the Republican is in the lead.

Polls that show a Republican within striking distance I see as a poll indicating a dead heat.

It shouldn't be that hard to grasp, even for a lefty.
That "dead heat" Hewitt was talking about turned out to be one of the most lopsided Democratic waves in memory.

You saw this in 2008, as well -- just a total denial of polls that showed Obama was going to win. They're biased! They favor Democrats! The media polling outfits are in the tank!

But as soon as they get a poll they like -- even from CBS and the NYT -- suddenly it's gospel.

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