Saturday, June 14, 2008

If By "Many," You Mean, Um, "Not Many".

Marsh via Putz:
TAYLOR MARSH: Many Hillary supporters can't see voting for Obama — at least not right now.


That ("that" being "that which gives Larry C. Johnson a twelve-hour erection") just ain't so. Take it away, Mr. Dickerson1:
Let's start with the math. Clinton says 18 million people voted for her. That's about 13 percent of the electorate. Obama wins about 80 percent of the Clinton supporters in a recent poll, which means that the coveted Clinton-for-McCain voters represent about 2.6 percent of the electorate. These voters matter only if they live in one of the 20 or so swing states—they're not going to win Massachusetts for McCain. This means the total number of voters he needs to convince and hold onto is small. But Irma isn't one of them; as it turns out, she doesn't live in a swing state.

And even if Irma represents the views of swing-state Hillary supporters and hasn't changed her mind yet, she may not remain in that camp for long. It's true that over the last couple of months, polls that asked Clinton supporters whether they would defect to McCain found as many as 30 percent who were willing to do so. But these polls, taken in the heat of a Democratic primary fight, were meaningless. I agree with Kerry's 2004 pollster Mark Mellman, who likens the polls of Clinton's supporters at their keenest moment of disappointment to asking women (or men) in the middle of a heated marital argument about their Valentine's Day plans. In the NBC post-primary poll, tempers were already cooling: Only 19 percent of Clinton supporters said they'd vote for McCain.


Harriet Christian is the exception, not the rule.

1"Irma" is a Slate reader who supported Clinton and says she will not vote for Obama.

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